BOW WAVE 365

Bow Wave issue 365--Caveat Advisor Edition

news and views on trade, insurance and risk

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(c)2006 WavyLine.com	Issue No 365 20 Nov 06
Published free of charge to Readers
Editor: Sam Ignarski
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In this issue:

1. Welcome
2. Clarksons Settle for $1.5 million
3. LSE Ship Finance Conference 07-08NOV06
4. Inserve
5. Last Call for CLECAT Conference
6. And Finally...

1. Welcome

Poem of the Week

Cinderella's Diary

I miss my stepmother. What a thing to say
but it's true. The prince is so boring: four
hours to dress and then the cheering throngs.
Again. The page who holds the door is cute
enough to eat. Where is he once Mr. Charming
kisses my forehead goodnight?

Every morning I gaze out a casement window
at the hunters, dark men with blood on their
boots who joke and mount, their black trousers
straining, rough beards, callused hands, selfish, abrupt ...

Oh, dear diary --I am lost in ever after:
Those insufferable birds, someone in every
room with a lute, the queen calling me to look
at another painting of her son, this time
holding the transparent slipper I wish
I'd never seen.

Ron Koertge, from Fever

New Readers this week include:-

Terence Song of Inserve
I Eggermont of Navigators
Tore Svinøy of the Gard
Emin Yasacan of Kuzey Marine Ltd
Ove Staaf of QBE in Stockholm
Patrick Donner, Associate Academic Dean of WMU

News of Readers

Emin Yasacan has set up his own P&I broking operation in Istanbul called Kuzey Marine Ltd.

Contact him at

emin.yasacan@kuzeymarineltd.com

Craig Jallal, 45, ran the ING New York Marathon raising money for the Alzheimer's Society and attached is the last instalment of his marathon blog.

Craig says "My time was 4 hours 13 minutes, and I enjoyed every minute of it. The pain and agony that followed is worthwhile knowing it was for a good cause."

He would like to thank all those who donated to the Alzheimer's Society.For those who made pledges you can still donate on:-

http://www.justgiving.com/jallal

The latest addition to the Quarterpoints stable of writers at Lloyd's List is Bill Gray, whose first column is imminent.

Bill a well known US naval architect was the technical director of Exxon for many years since when he has worked with Ole Skaarup. He is independent - freelance - nowadays and promises to bring a new and transatlantic eye to all kinds of technical and operational issues. Among his many adventures in a long past is the voyage on the "Manhattan" through the NW Passage.

We are sad to learn last week of the death of Christian Dodd who for many years worked in the world of the mutual Clubs before branching out into the law in England and France. _____

Hong Kong stalwart Andy Williams has moved to Vancouver after 30 years in the territory. He has had quite a career so far. Eight years with a correspondent for five major Clubs followed by 19 years with Swire Group shipping companies China Navigation (deep-sea) and Swire Pacific Offshore (Offshore) handling all type of insurances, all types of claims, contract negotiation, dispute resolution, risk management and in-house legal work. He is also a mediator and arbitrator

He is now living in Vancouver permanently and is looking for marine insurance consultancy work.

Contact him at:-

andy.williams@cnco.com.hk

Readers Write

From Ricardo J. Sánchez in Santiago

It is for me a great pleasure to contact you again regarding our website for Ports, Maritime Transport and Logistics. Readers interested in our region should go to:

http://www.eclac.cl

PS. our recommended book this month is:

DERIVATIVES AND RISK MANAGEMENT IN SHIPPING, By Manolis G. Kavussanos,and Ilias D. Visvikis,.gr>

Contact Ricardo at:-

Ricardo.Sanchez@cepal.org

AfterOfficeHours News

The latest edition of the Maritime Advocate online (Issue 279) can be accessed by clicking on the link below.

http://afterofficehours.com/news.php

Readers who would like to subscribe to this highly readable fraternal publication--which is edited by Chris Hewer and published free to Readers--should send an e-mail to:-

contactus@afterofficehours.com

Note from the Editor

During this long shipping summer a little rain must fall.

Enjoy!

2. Clarksons Settle for $1.5 million

News reaches the market this week of the settlement reached between disappointed shipping investors Abu Dhabi Investment Company and analysts Clarksons who were caught up in a much larger dispute as a result of an analysis of prospects for the container trades commissioned by the investment company. The study was written by Rogan McLellan, former senior analyst at the shipbroking firm who retired earlier this year.

The report in Lloyd's List says that Clarksons insist the claim has no merit, but agreed with insurers to settle rather than press on with an expensive court case.

That may be so but something in life tells your editor when settlements are reached at the door of the court the parties concerned have come to a view of their evidence and prospects which keeps them from crossing a threshold to even greater expense and embarrassment.

A shipping venture which turned sour in the Gulf is just the latest instance of how much more readily the world in general, rather than just the American branch, turns to litigate in times of trouble armed with a wide muzzled gun. It is not a reassuring precedent to all of us who earn a crust giving specialist advice in the industry.

3. LSE Ship Finance Conference 07-08NOV06

Our Correspondent Douglas Lindsay writes:-

This event has become one of the most important of its kind in the calendar, with a major turn-out of bankers and shipowners putting their heads together to look at the way forward. This year the tone was cautious optimism. Yes, we're in boom times with no obvious signs of an end to them. But a strong wariness also pervaded the gathering, with a feeling that the next depression was bound to come, the only question being ' when?' Not for a year or two yet seems to be the answer, despite record levels of newbuildings. At some point these will have to be offset by high levels of scrapping - there is virtually none at the moment and veterans are rumbling on into an extended old age which must eventually end.

Fred Doll gave his usual succinct delivery with an overview of prospects for world trade. Of course, China still dominates this as far as shippping is concerned, and growth is expected to continue, albeit at an easier pace. But the USA is easing back and particularly there are structural changes in oil markets there. Refinery capacity constraints mean that at best crude oil imports will level while
demand for products goes on rising. This has moved product tanker markets into the US from an arbitrage trade to a longer-term demand although still subject to large seasonal fluctuations. But raw materials in / finished products out of China will continue to be the dominant force in shipping. Ever-larger
container vessels have yet to overtake demand
fluctuations as the dominant determinant of earnings, but for how long as the Emma Maersks of the world come on stream in significant numbers? Falling USA demand is now badly affecting trans-Pacific trades; with a Eurocentric view of the world it is easy to overlook just how critical the trans-Pacific trade is to the container market.

Ship building came under the spotlight, with David Jessel pointing out that shipyards go on building ships more or less regardless of demand, because that's what they do. The thing that fluctuates with freight markets is price, and not surprisingly price is at an all-time high just now. A conspicuous
feature of the newbuilding scene is the relative
lack of bulk carriers in it. This is driven as
much by yards' lack of interest in building them
as by demand. Bulk carriers are the ' cheap and
cheerful' end of the market to a shipbuilder, who can earn much better profits on a gas carrier or a tanker, so why bother with bulkers unless owners are willing to pay a hefty premium? So far, they haven't been willing to and that in itself may
contribute to the greater strength of the dry bulk market. Interestingly, the prediction is that yard prices will fall significantly over the next few years before starting to climb again from 2010 -
a comment on the freight market as well, perhaps.
But this being a finance conference, the physical market was only one aspect of it. The publicly
quoted shipping company has become a much more
conspicuous feature of the shipping world and a
lively debate asked which was the best place for
listing. Perhaps unsurprisingly New York came
out on top but Oslo made a strong pitch and the
NASDAQ has its share. Then came the perennial
question of why London is so hostile to publicly
quoted shipping companies. The AIM does have a
few and Michael Tartsinis of Global Ocean Carriers reported a success but others have found even the secondary AIM market to be stony ground. In a
location where many shipping specialisations are
world leaders it is strange that the stock market regards shipping as bad news - perhaps something Maritime London could tackle?

The other feature of the conference was the spreading range of sources of finance. It is not so many years ago that the pundits were predicting a complete drying up of finance for shipping. Now the opposite is true: not only are the banks awash with cash they are keen to lend at very competitive rates (and with less stringent covenants) but the hedge funds, special investor funds, the KGs, the private investor funds, islamic funds with petrodollars, all are keen to put money into the shipping industry. In terms of availability, now is a good time to go looking for funds. But is it the right time in terms of the the market cycle? That, as the bankers say, is the 64 dollar question.

Contact Douglas at:-

djlindsay@dsl.pipex.com

4. Inserve

We met up this week with Jon Gray whom we have known for many years. His colleagues and he are going well with their marine surveying venture Inserve which is now some 3 and a half years old. Something of the flavour of their work can be had from their website which makes better use of pictures and narrative than most surveyor sites we see.

Go to:-

http://www.inserve.org/index.asp?category=NEWS

5. Last Call for CLECAT Conference

Letizia Trunfio writes:-

On behalf of CLECAT President Mr. Jean-Claude Delen, we are pleased to invite your Readers to our

Freight Forwarders’ Conference
Thursday 30 November 2006
Brussels Marriott Hotel
Rue Auguste Orts 3-7
1000 Brussels, Belgium

Please e-mail us to request the final programme, a registration form (including hotel booking) and practical information about the event and its location.

PROGRAMME

The Freight Forwarders’ Conference will be divided into two parts.

- The morning session will be dedicated to Customs. Members of the European Commission (Key note: Mr R. Verrue, DG TAXUD) and representatives of the trade will assess "The Role of Customs Services in the Facilitation of Trade Logistics".

- The afternoon, devoted to logistics, will give an opportunity to listen to prominent speakers, such as Mr. J. Allan (DHL Logistics), Ms. N. Van der Jagt (ESC), Mr. P. Balas (DG TRADE) and European Commission’s Vice-President Mr. J. Barrot, discussing "The Role of Forwarding and Logistics in the European Trade Competitiveness".

A seated lunch will be served after the first session. The conference will finish at 1800 hours and it will be followed by a cocktail reception.

For further information go to

http://www.clecat.org

contact us at:-

+32 2 503 4705

info@clecat.org

6. And Finally...

Many thanks to HK based Charles de Trenck for these ISMs:-

INFOSYSism
You have a 1000 poor cows. You put them on a nice campus & send them one at a time to the US for milking.

WIPROism
GE has a cow. You take 49% of the milk

DELLism
Intel has a Goat. Samsung has a Camel. Buy milk from both & sell it as Cow's milk.

IBMism
You have old stubborn cows. You sell them as pet dogs to innocent small businessmen.

MICROSOFTism
You have a cow. Force the world to buy milk from you. Spend a million dollars to feed poorer cows.

INTELism
Microsoft makes horse shoes. You nail them to your cows & wonder why they don't run fast.

SUNism
You have a bull. It doesn't give milk. You hate Microsoft.

ORACLEism
You have a cow. You don't know which side to milk, so you sell tools to help milk cows.

SAPism
You don't have a cow. You sell milking solutions for cows implemented by milking consultants.

APPLEism
You have a cow. You sell iMilk.

SONYism
You have a cow. You spend $50 mn to develop the
world's thinnest milk.

CITIBANKism
Welcome to Citibank. If you have a cow, press 1. If you have a bull, press 2...stay on line if you'd like our customer care to milk it for you

HPism
You don't know if what you have is a cow. You sell complete milking solutions through authorised resellers only

GEism
You have a donkey. People think you have a 100-year old cow. If someone finds out, that's his imagination at work.

RELIANCEism
You don't yet have a cow. You sell empty cans to people for Rs. 501, because Dhirubhai wanted everyone to have milk.

TATAism
You have a very old cow. You re-brand it as TATA Indicow.

P.S.

One liners from Frazer Hunt down under

* Advertisement in a Shop: Guitar, for sale, cheap no strings attached.

* Seen on a bulletin board: Success is relative. The more success, the more relatives.

* When I read about the evils of drinking... I gave up reading.

* My Grandfather is eighty and still doesn't need glasses... He drinks straight out of the bottle.

* You know the kids are growing up when your daughter begins to put on lipstick or your son starts to wipe it off.
* Sign in a bar: Those drinking to forget........ please pay in advance."

* If your wife wants to learn to drive, don't stand in her way.

* Behind every great man, there is a surprised woman.

* Some people kiss with both eyes closed. Too bad they marry the same way.

* The reason men lie is because women ask so many questions.

* A Spouse is someone who'll stand by you through all the trouble you wouldn't have had, if you'd stayed single.
* The surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is the fact that it has never tried to contact us.
* Sign at a barber's saloon in Juhu, Bombay: We need your heads to run our business.

* A traffic slogan: Don't let your kids drive if they are not old enough or else they will never be.

* Sign in a restaurant: All drinking water in this establishment has been personally passed by the manager.

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