BOW WAVE 272

Bow Wave Issue 272--Chinese New Year Edition

news and views on trade, insurance and risk

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(c)2005 WavyLine.com	Issue No 272 07 Feb 05
Published free of charge to Readers
Editor: Sam Ignarski
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In this issue:

1. Welcome
2. The month of January 2005 in Marine
3. Chinese New Year Holidays 2005
4. Lloyd's Tsunami Losses Update
5. Broker Arrow Visits
6. And Finally...

1. Welcome

New Readers this week include:

Nathalie Theunen and Justin Manning of brokers Marsh Gilles Gareau
Dick Silvester
Stuart Downie of Omnibox Container Management Services Lawyer Marc D. Isaacs Strathy & Associates in Toronto Charlotte Anderson of Acis Cargo Insurance
Lawyer Troy Anderson Phillips Fox in Sydney

News of Readers

Ian Cochran is now working out of the same office as Karl Jeffery on a new publication called Tank Storage. This magazine is aimed at those involved in the land-based tank storage industry. It will be published six times per year and will be launched at the forthcoming StocExpo exhibition and conference to be held in Rotterdam between 1-3 March.

Contact him at:-

cochran@tankeroperator.com

Round the world yachtswoman Ellen MacArthur is nearing Falmouth and is expected to reach her finish point some time Monday evening (07FEB05) .

Her website is quite something:-

http://www.teamellen.com

Happy Chinese New Year to all our Readers.

Enjoy.

2. The month of January 2005 in Marine

Walter Mellert writes:-

Dear Mariners,

Global warming and advancing glacier(re)s, rough, cold winterstorms in Europe and the East Coast USA - all that on top of the Asian Tsunami late last year. Next to that the following "highlights" seem all but exciting:

-->Marine loss estimates on the horrific Indian Ocean Tsunami are slow in coming in. Early guesses point towards a rather unimportant overall insured loss - particularly when seen relative to the extreme costs in human suffering.

-->Lloyds 2005 stamp capacity is set at £13.7 bio or 9% below last years record high, to help keep up the healthy pressure on still holding rating levels.

-->Energy offshore rates are soaring - ups of 100% seem possible - as the full magnitude of Ivan losses ($ 2.5 bio and counting) finally hits home.

-->Did you know that China consumes 8% of the world's crude, 27% of all steel, 33% of all fish and 35% of the globe's cigarettes. They also gobble a fifth of all ice cream. Balanced diet?

-->Experts suspect that the Tsunami may have changed waterdepth in parts of the Malacca Strait. An ocean floor survey is called for with preliminary measuring discounting most such fears.

-->P&I Clubs moan about poor investment returns. Someone please reassure them, - they are not alone!

-->Force 9 winds, heavy seas and shifting timber cargo are a dangerous mix. 76 built GCC "Sea Fox" sent a mayday off Scotland after developing a 50 degree list.

-->Delivery of the first Alstom built LNG delayed because of tank insulation "anomalies". Anybody remember "Avondale" ?

-->Nigerian navy sheds two rear admirals for helping arrested smugglers to get away with their ship.

-->It is no longer Rotterdam but Shanghai that can claim to be the world's number one port. As a matter of fact the former recently suffered from seriously clogged berthspace because of the tremendous flow of containerized goods originating from the latter.

-->Seismologists estimate that the whole island of Sumatra has moved 30-40 meters on December 26th, equivalent to about a 1000 years of normal continental drift.

-->The last 15 years has seen the world's top 50 ports container throughput rise from 70 mio TEU to nearly 230 mio TEU with 2003 /04 both showing more than 10% annual growth.

-->Port of Singapore exceeds the 20 mio TEU mark for 2004 by 600'000 representing a throughput growth of more than 14% over last year - all because of the China trade boom.

--> Volatile VLCC freight rates? Sure, December saw worldscale 300 + for MiddleEast to Japan, this month 74 will do it. Reason? 8 new VLCCs looking for work!

-->Scottish and Irish ferries stop services, some bridge and rail links are closed as a severe storm with 220 + kmh winds passes over the isles causing lots of damage.

-->75 blt Panama flagged GCC "General Lee" is shooed out of (southern!) US waters as the USCG felt the captain was drunk yet refused a breathalyzer test. Cheers!

--> China's communication ministry announced plans for a seatunnel link between the mainland and Taiwan - at the same time as another govt agency is contemplating the difficult question of whether or not to permit direct charter flights next month.

-->The counting on Ivan's energy damage continues - $ 2.7bio the current total , up from last month's 2.5 bio. Twohundred million! .... not bad for 30 days counting.

-->Underwriters worth their salt know that hull insurance pricing is still below what it should be, yet only poor performers had to face increases at the sadly flat 1.1. renewal. What gives?

-->1966 blt N.Korean flagged GCC "Lady O" loaded with processed iron sinks in force 10 storm in the Aegean Sea, Two crew members confirmed dead, 5 still missing.

-->Dubai gets the worlds largest gantry cranes: 45 boxes/h, 4 TEU or 2 FEU at the same time, 80t per lift, 25 containers outreach - enough to handle the next generation 12'000 TEU monsters.

-->The Marine Accident Investigation Branch convincingly illustrates the dangers of having only one man on watch. When RMS "Mulheim" grounded the man on the bridge was unconscious on the floor; on RMS "Ratingen", the boarding pilot found the captain asleep at the wheel.

--> 8 chemical tanker explosions in 4 years, causing fatalities, raise questions amongst owners, ports and, no doubt insurers. Inert gas systems, onboard security, crew quality?

-->Junkyard was the word USCG used to describe the bottom of the Delaware river after finding on top of the infamous cast iron pipe a concrete slab and a derelict anchor with Athos 1 paint on it. The final clean-up cost for the 800+ ton oil spill is estimated to reach $ 100 mio or 125 bucks per kilo!

-->85 blt, 4600 dwt "Pioneer Naya" carrying steel from Russia to China capsizes & sinks off N.Korea in heavy seas, 4 crew rescued, 14 missing

-->Carnival (P&O) "Aurora" fails third sea trial (propulsion) and cancels around the world cruise. 1750 pax disappointed, 110% cash refund and 25% in cruise vouchers (ca $ 43 mio) Ouch!

-->Britannia, the world's first full-fledged P&I Club and still the second largest, celebrates her 150th birthday.

-->More of the same: RCCLs "Mariner"- and "Enchantment"- "of the Seas" treated a total of 384 pax and 35 crew to an unforgettable Norwalk virus experience.

-->Global warming, ocean levels rising, storm frequency and severity increasing, etc - if you like conspiracy stories and more confusion about environmental issues, read "State of fear", Michael Crichton's latest blockbuster.

-->The fourth year of general premium increases in P&I will see rises ranging from zero (JapanClub & Shipowners Mutual) to 12.5% for most larger Clubs meaning that P&I cost has nearly doubled since 2001.

-->2004 Eurotunnel revenue dropped 4% to $ 1 bio; price cuts on ferries and cheap airlines are blamed. The $ 12 bio overall debt is but another ball and chain!

-->China's continued runaway growth (9.5%) caused some 4% official inflation, leading the govt to peg future growth to 8% or lower - crude oil imports alone rose 35% to 122 mio tons.

-->Zebra mussels beware. Spain and Brazil are the first to ratify IMO's ballast water convention. Another 28 States and in total 35% of the world's tonnage are needed to make it all become law.

-->The focus is again on leaking and ill maintained hatch covers. Cargo insurers no doubt appreciate the extra attention as claims on water logged cargos keep coming in.

-->Now that everybody talks about "rogue" or "freak" waves they should finally be regarded as normal "perils of the sea" and design rules should follow suit -- at a time when ships have actually become less robust to optimize taxes, capacity and efficiency.

-->Quote of the month: "think of the world as a marketplace doesn't mean that national identity isn't important."(Sorrell, WPP)

-->Shameful bid-rigging, $850 mio compensation to US clients (what about others?) apologies, no fines just a return of 2003 contingent commissions and all of that tax deductible. The marshes are deep indeed.

Note:-

Any opinion expressed in this item should be regarded as the personal opinion of Walter Mellert and not one made in his capacity as an employee of Swiss Re and any such opinion is not the opinion of Swiss Re, of any of its affiliated companies or of any of its officers or employees.Accordingly, Swiss Re hereby expressly disclaims any liability, loss, cost or expenses arising directly or indirectly from the content or expression of views of this newsletter or of other Websites to which this newsletter may provide a link.

3. Chinese New Year Holidays 2005

A glance at the table in this item shows how very dissimilar are the holiday habits of the Western Pacific in respect of the Chinese New Year

Hope it is of some use to Readers in knowing who is open this week and next. We have laid it out in this rather plain fashion due to the limitations of plain text formating.

SHENZHEN, CHINA

Mon-07Feb05-Holiday
Tue-08Feb05-Holiday
Wed-09Feb05-Holiday
Thu-10Feb05-Holiday
Fri-11Feb05-Holiday
Mon-14Feb05-Holiday
Tue-15Feb05-Holiday

TAIWAN

Mon-07Feb05-Holiday
Tue-08Feb05-Holiday
Wed-09Feb05-Holiday
Thu-10Feb05-Holiday
Fri-11Feb05-Holiday
Mon-14Feb05-Open
Tue-15Feb05-Open

HONG KONG

Mon-07Feb05-1/2 Day Trading
Tue-08Feb05-Holiday
Wed-09Feb05-Holiday
Thu-10Feb05-Holiday
Fri-11Feb05-Holiday
Mon-14Feb05-Open
Tue-15Feb05-Open

KOREA

Mon-07Feb05-Open
Tue-08Feb05-Holiday
Wed-09Feb05-Holiday
Thu-10Feb05-Holiday
Fri-11Feb05-Open
Mon-14Feb05-Open
Tue-15Feb05-Open

INDONESIA

Mon-07Feb05-Open
Tue-08Feb05-Open
Wed-09Feb05-Holiday
Thu-10Feb05-Holiday
Fri-11Feb05-Open
Mon-14Feb05-Open
Tue-15Feb05-Open

MALAYSIA

Mon-07Feb05-Open
Tue-08Feb05-Open
Wed-09Feb05-Holiday
Thu-10Feb05-Holiday
Fri-11Feb05-Holiday
Mon-14Feb05-Open
Tue-15Feb05-Open

SINGAPORE

Mon-07Feb05-Open
Tue-08Feb05-1/2 Day Trading
Wed-09Feb05-Holiday
Thu-10Feb05-Holiday
Fri-11Feb05-Open
Mon-14Feb05-Open
Tue-15Feb05-Open

JAPAN

Mon-07Feb05-Open
Tue-08Feb05-Open
Wed-09Feb05-Open
Thu-10Feb05-Open
Fri-11Feb05-Holiday
Mon-14Feb05-Open
Tue-15Feb05-Open

THAILAND

Mon-07Feb05-Open
Tue-08Feb05-Open
Wed-09Feb05-Open
Thu-10Feb05-Open
Fri-11Feb05-Open
Mon-14Feb05-Open
Tue-15Feb05-Open

AUSTRALIA

Mon-07Feb05-Open
Tue-08Feb05-Open
Wed-09Feb05-Open
Thu-10Feb05-Open
Fri-11Feb05-Open
Mon-14Feb05-Open
Tue-15Feb05-Open

NEW ZEALAND

Mon-07Feb05-Open
Tue-08Feb05-Open
Wed-09Feb05-Open
Thu-10Feb05-Open
Fri-11Feb05-Open
Mon-14Feb05-Open
Tue-15Feb05-Open

PHILIPPINES

Mon-07Feb05-Open
Tue-08Feb05-Open
Wed-09Feb05-Open
Thu-10Feb05-Open
Fri-11Feb05-Open
Mon-14Feb05-Open
Tue-15Feb05-Open

INDIA

Mon-07Feb05-Open
Tue-08Feb05-Open
Wed-09Feb05-Open
Thu-10Feb05-Open
Fri-11Feb05-Open
Mon-14Feb05-Open
Tue-15Feb05-Open

4. Lloyd's Tsunami Losses Update

We have received the following message about Lloyd's from Press Officer Caroline Howe:-

In our statement of 29 December 2004 we reported that we were in contact with insurers in the Lloyd's market to establish the market's financial exposure to the Indian Ocean earthquake and resulting tsunami. We said then that we expected the market's exposure to be limited.

We now have the results of those returns. They have confirmed that the Lloyd's market's exposure is limited. The net loss was approximately £100 million. A significant proportion of these losses will be within businesses' planning assumptions for expected catastrophe loss costs.

The priority for insurers at Lloyd's now is to assess and settle claims as promptly as possible.

5. Broker Arrow Visits

Roger Foord writes:-

In conjunction with David Wilson FCA of AnnoMM I am holding, on February 14th 2005, an FSA related seminar, ‘Broker Arrow visits..not one of Cupid’s arrows but the FSA’s’.

The location is the Millennium Room, Bankside Business Centre, 107 Leadenhall Street, EC3.

The point of the free event is to give an expert’s overview on how the FSA will review your enterprise and what that will mean for the future.

Specific issues covered will be:

* The guiding principles
* The purpose of the FSA ‘Arrow’ assessment visit * What takes place and what are the consequences
* How can you best prepare
* Common pitfalls and how to deal with them

The breakfast session will start with registration and coffee at 8.30 and will finish no later than 10.00

If you would like to attend please contact Roger at

tel:020-7891-2701

or

info@rogerfoord.com

6. And Finally...

Thanks to Frazer Hunt for these thoughts on gender:-

A Spanish teacher was explaining to her class that in Spanish, unlike English, nouns are designated as either masculine or feminine.
"House" for instance, is feminine: "la casa."
"Pencil," however, is masculine: "el lapiz."
A student asked, "What gender is 'computer'?"
Instead of giving the answer, the teacher split the class into two groups, male and female, and asked them to decide for themselves whether "computer" should be a masculine or a feminine noun. Each group was asked to give four reasons for its recommendation.

The men's group decided that "computer" should definitely be of the feminine gender ("la computadora"), because:

1. No one but their creator understands their internal logic; 2. The native language they use to communicate with other computers is incomprehensible to everyone else;
3. Even the smallest mistakes are stored in long term memory for possible later retrieval; and
4. As soon as you make a commitment to one, you find yourself spending half your paycheck on accessories for it.

The women's group, however, concluded that computers should be Masculine ("el computador"), because:

1. In order to do anything with them, you have to turn them on; 2. They have a lot of data but still can't think for themselves; 3. They are supposed to help you solve problems, but half the time they ARE the problem; and
4. As soon as you commit to one, you realize that if you had waited a little longer, you could have gotten a better model.

The women won.

PS....Thanks to Barbara Yeninas for asking Why?

Why do we press harder on a remote control when we know the batteries are flat?

Why do banks charge a fee on "insufficient funds" when they know there is not enough?

Why does someone believe you when you say there are four billion stars, but check when you say the paint is wet?

Why doesn't glue stick to the bottle?

Why do they use sterilised needles for death by lethal injection?

Why doesn't Tarzan have a beard?

Why does Superman stop bullets with his chest, but ducks when you throw a revolver at him?

Why do Kamikaze pilots wear helmets?

Whose idea was it to put an "S" in the word "lisp"?

What is the speed of darkness?

Are there specially reserved parking spaces for "normal" people at the Special Olympics?

If you send someone polystyrene, how do you pack it?

If the temperature is zero outside today and it's going to be twice as cold tomorrow, how cold will it be?

If it's true that we are here to help others, what are the others doing here?

If someone with a split personality threatens to commit suicide, is it a hostage situation?

What level of importance must a person have, before they are considered assassinated instead of just murdered?

If money doesn't grow on trees then why do banks have branches?

Why does a round pizza come in a square box?

Why is it that people say they "slept like a baby" when babies wake up, like, every two hours?

If a deaf person has to go to court, is it still called a hearing?

Why do people pay to go up tall buildings and then put money in binoculars to look at things on the ground?

Why do doctors, when they ask you to strip, leave the room or close the cubicle curtain while you change? They're still going to see you naked anyway.

BOW WAVE is published each week to over 11 500 Readers in the transport,insurance,shipping and finance industries.

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