BOW WAVE 235

Milestone Edition

news and views on trade, insurance and risk

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Wavy Line	sam@wavyline.com
(c)2004 WavyLine.com	Issue No 235 24 May 04
Published free of charge to Readers
Editor: Sam Ignarski
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In this issue:

1. Welcome
2. The Edinburgh Student
3. Logan Airport Security Upgrade
4. As I Say
5. Watching the Bottom Line
6. And Finally...

1. Welcome

The real problem is not whether machines think but whether men do.

(B. F. Skinner)

New Readers this week include:

Eoin Lawless of lawyers Phillips Fox
Maritime Economist Professor Alan Branch
Chief Engineer Rahul Nagpaul of Applied Research International Marine Media Manager Dolly Robinson of Lloyds Register Panama Canal Pilot Capt Miguel F Rodriguez
YAP Cheng Hua, Director of Corporate Services for the MPA Gillian Smyth,Marketing Manager,ABS Europe
Senior Surveyor Martin Crawford-Brunt of DNV
Philippa Wright Legal Director of the Foresight Group

News of Readers

Jeffrey Blum, who is a prolific correspondent to Bow Wave has just launched a website:-

http://www.intlinkint.com

A recent review of the Reader figures for Bow Wave has disclosed that it is is read by at least this many people in the Banking and Trade Finance world:

14--HSBC
06--Deutsche Bank
04--CCEWeb
03--Swift
02--Barclays
02--RBS
03--Bolero
03--Tufton Oceanic
02--Swift
02--Commerzbank
02--World Bank
02--Dresdener Bank

The firm of Freight Investor Services (FIS) in Chislehurst, Kent has announced that it is holding an annual Charity Day whereby all commission derived from its worldwide offices will be donated to charity.

This year the beneficiary will be the British & International Sailors’ Society (BISS), a charity that has been caring for seafarers and their families for 185 years.

To further this effort three of the employees,
John Banaszkiewicz, Leo King, and Ian Staples, will be climbing the three highest mountains in Great Britain in a 24 hour period later in June as part of the Three Peaks Challenge.

John Banaszkiewicz, the Managing Director of FIS, says the hike is " nearly as up and down as the recent FFA market" but we think it is a great opportunity to generate private and corporate sponsorship and hopefully make a significant donation to the BISS and future beneficiaries. We have already been pleasantly surprised by the generosity and enthusiasm of our customers and staff".

Any Reader in the FFA industry in particular, or the transport world in general who would like to donate something to the cause should respond to:-

info@freightinvestor.com

Readers Write:

Sarah Scott writes:-

I am doing some research on any enthusiasm for or interest there might be "out there" and amongst Bow Wave subscribers in a news column or service devoted to Australian shipping news. Australian Shipping News, a "project in formation" would include either regular editorial articles or columns in mainstream Australian national newspapers and/or an independent web-based publication devoted to the industry. Information or articles would be about everything from container shipping and those who reside within to Australian ports, harbours and waterways, reform, new infrastructure, industry developments, political issues, shipping and boating movements and industry gossip. Any feedback would

Contact her at:-

scribe@berlin.com

Something of a milestone edition as we begin to think about what next for Bow Wave. Your editor sends his thanks to Readers for making the whole thing such fun and for contributing with such flair.

Enjoy.

2. The Edinburgh Student

It has been some time since your editor appeared in the columns of the student press, but an invitation from Gabrielle Koronka, daughter of CTC new mutuals man Paul Koronka to write something on the future proved impossible to resist. The future being something of a fixation. So below is the piece, followed by Ms Koronka's
counter:-

With the abundance of changes that have arisen over the past decade, predictions of the future are of growing importance to our generation.
Sam Ignarski, editor of international trade e-zine Bow Wave, urges people to sit up and take notice, while Gabrielle Koronka argues that they already are.

Times are changing

It is often said that change introduces great uncertainties into our lives. And we, disliking uncertainty and all its discomforts, are change-averse. This may above all be true of island people like the British or the Japanese who cling on to what they know and like with great determination.

But what of all the things we know already are happening or in the process of happening? For these are far from being uncertainties. The only thing of which you could easily be unsure is the implication of the large scale trends we can easily track from our daily living and reading. Here is a short list.

The first involves the rise of China and the Western Pacific. People working in international trade have long lived with the idea of the Great American Market, the consumption of which drives world trade. The end of the Cold War and the opening of the Chinese economy have reached a kind of tipping point in recent years.

You only have to go to a city like Shanghai to see the pace of change and economic aspiration which has something of a Victorian flavour about it. You also realise when you return to your western metropolis what post-industrial means in terms of the way life is lived. It is quiet, not very dirty, pleasure-seeking, rather cerebral and safe.

But despite all this, when every ship in the world seems to be heading either towards or away from China bearing raw materials or finished products for the markets of the world, how many people have really pondered the notion that there is a longer and longer list of goods and services produced in world trade, the price for which is now set in China? If you are working in a business which also competes with these goods and services, coming to terms with this is a really demanding task. And how many sinologists are leaving the universities, ready to understand the implications of China as the world's largest economy? The day is probably no more than 10 or 15 years away.

"The End of Middle Everything" is a shorthand term Future planners use to describe the way the world is dividing up between small niche arrangements and overwhelmingly large battalions.

It is visible in the high street of every town in Britain and it is also visible in the elimination of middlemen and agents in many walks of life. The medium sized and middle order of just about everything you can examine
is being squeezed by the large forces of our times.

One of the prime agents of this process of atrophying, erosion and consolidation is the introduction of the Internet as a Colonizing Force which has given abilities to individuals and organisations which have hitherto never been available. Everyone can be a global publisher, reaching the ends of the earth at extraordinarily low costs.

Over the next ten years, the widening of bandwith and the extreme versatility, cheapness and ubiquity of technology will drive an astounding amount of change.

The increasing torpor of politics, the erosion of ideology at the end of the 20th Century, the reluctance to participate in traditional politics which is evidenced at every election time points to the time ahead when cultural differences will loom larger in the lives of people. The left-right dichotomy which the world has followed for over a century seems to be under pressure from more enduring differences between long term religious, linguistic, cultural and social traditions.

The traditionally hostile position between Christian and Islamic traditions which has re-emerged as a feature of modern times is just one example of what is very likely to be the theme of our futures.

Wherever these cultural faultlines are, trouble is always at least latent in the Balkans, the Middle East, the North East Asian Triangle and scores of lesser examples.

What can a well-educated person do in the face of these trends? Practice the skills of anticipation and deduction. Eschew hoping it will not be so bad. Invest as little as possible in dying causes. Hope is only desire in conditions of lesser probability.

Sam Ignarski

Techno world

With such endless possibilities before us, there is certainly need for speculations forecasting maybe gloom, maybe hope, or everything in between. I think that a well-educated person would not eschew such propositions - we might do more than just "hope it will not be so bad."

But of course we have no certainty of that, just as there is no certainty in anything. There is no great certainty that, although China will no doubt succeed in being one of the world's largest super-powers, it will continue in such a sustained and thorough direction.

China's growing economy is expected to overtake the US economy between 2020 and 2050. However, they said the same thing about Korea overtaking Japan ten years ago - it never happened.

China, too, has problems. The problems of size and distance America has dealt with already, and this has enabled them to develop a suitable infrastructure to cope with them. China's sheer size and the population pressure on arable land has led to scarcity and the possibility of weak central government. It is uncertain whether continued central rule from Beijing over such a vast and populous nation may not require a disjoining of urban regions, such as Shanghai in the North, and Kunming in Southern China's Yunnan Province. "The future of China may resemble that of Classical Greece, with its rival cities, blood feuds, and a contest of militarism with commerce," says Ralph Peters, a national security expert. Maybe we can, in fact, postulate an outcome similar to Shelley's, in describing an empire that has come and gone, in 'Ozymandias': "Look on my works ye Mighty, and despair! Nothing beside remains. Round the decay of that Colossal wreck, boundless and bare the lone and level sands stretch far away."

Technology has already led a determined course into the present. It would be difficult to ignore the changes it has wrought, especially with the effects of the internet so abundant in all aspects of life and business. But there will always be a place for the human being.

The end of "Middle Everything" is a trend but change is slow and there may be a new breed of Middle Men.

Technology, I would argue, has already made its most profound moves on civilisation. Development of it will come, no doubt, but the amount of change that it will bring will show up more in cost and efficiency of business than in a deep-rooted upheaval of all that we know.

A simple thing like shopping online cannot dispell the fact that people still need to actually go and see something and 'feel' it - some things cannot be disintermediated. After all, isn't Google merely another type of middle man?

The fact is, at the end of the day, the scare-mongering may have more of an effect on us than the changes themselves.

It is evident that in the students around me there is resurgence in political discourse and interest in the changes to come, which is dispelling the apathy of previous generations.

There will always be differences between religious, linguistic, cultural and social traditions. There always has been and I see no reason why these things may deepen in the future. Maybe our generation will embrace the coming possibilities, and accept without worry that we may have no idea what lies ahead.

We are a generation, after all, which has grown up with such technology, and political and religious upheaval. We are learning with the times. Such things have not been hoisted upon us as they may have been to unsuspecting forefathers.

"Change has a considerable psychological impact on the human mind. To the fearful it is threatening because it means that things may get worse. To the hopeful it is encouraging because things may get better. To the confident it is inspiring because the challenge exists to make things better."

Gabrielle Koronka

3. Logan Airport Security Upgrade

From the latest edition of CRYPTO-GRAM, the monthly e-zine issued by on-line security guru Bruce Schneier:-

It's just a pilot program, but undercover security officers are roaming Boston's Logan Airport, looking for suspicious people who may be planning a terrorist act. It's got a fancy name, "behavior pattern recognition," but basically it means "be on the lookout for suspicious people."

I think this is the best thing to happen to airplane security since they reinforced the cockpit doors.

I've long argued that traditional airport security is largely useless. Air travelers -- the innocent ones -- are subjected to all sorts of indignities in the name of security. Again and again we read studies about how bad the checkpoints are at keeping weapons out of airports. The system seems to do nothing more than irritate honest people. (Remember, when airport security takes a pair of scissors away from an innocent grandma, that's a security failure. It's a false positive. It's not a success.)

Well-trained officers on the lookout for suspicious people is a great substitute.

The devil is in the details, of course. All too often "he's acting suspicious" really translates to "he's black." Well-trained is the key to avoiding racism, which is both bad for society and bad for security. But security is inherently about people, and smart observant people are going to notice things that metal detectors and X-ray machines will miss.

Of course, machines are better at ducking charges of prejudice. It may be less secure to have a computer decide who to wand, or to have random chance decide whose baggage to open, but it's easier to pretend that prejudice is not an issue. "It's not the officer's fault; the computer selected him" plays well as a defense. And in a world where security theatre still matters more than security, this is an important consideration.

For about a year now, I've been saying we can improve airport security by doing away with the security checkpoints and replacing them with well-trained officers looking out for suspicious activity. It'll probably never happen, but at least this is a start.

Read the whole edition (15MAY04) at:-

http://www.schneier.com/crypto-gram.html

4. As I Say

Ronald Gift Mullins has been at it again, attending and rating a Seminar on PR for the Insurance Industry in New York. This former alumnus of the JoC, who usually has something droll to say was less than impressed with the venue of the day:-

Facilities and Victuals

Designed by the renowned firm of McKim, Mead and White and built in 1919 by the Pennsylvania Railroad, Hotel Pennsylvania once offered suitable accommodations, but in recent years, it has slipped in style and upkeep. Upon entering the hotel off crotchety Seventh Avenue, immediately apparent is a grittiness on the floor, the walls, on the faces of the people behind the counters, even in the scruffy air. According to a hotel brochure, "The hotel is famous not only for its grandeur but also for its place in the world of entertainment."

The meeting room, a vast ball room, had more than ample seats for five times the number (about 60) attending the seminar. The lighting was poor and clumsily
positioned. Breakfast, break and lunch offered little to write about.

Nor is sparing on his own perfomance:-

No Joy in Freelancing

Addressing freelance writing, Ronn Mullins, a professional insurance journalist, gave a halting, stumbling, gawky accounting of his experiences as a free lance writer. During his speech, he twisted this way and that, picked up his papers and held them close to his face, looked longingly toward the windows where sun beams cut the darkness, all of which suggested he was having some difficulty in the dim light to see what he had written.

The program notes reported that Mr. Mullins would relate how he "has worked here, there, and what seems at times everywhere as a freelance writer for the insurance industry. How to make contacts, present services, pricing & billing, and staying busy."

The title of his presentation was the Joy of Freelancing, but Mr. Mullins quickly disabused the audience that there was much joy in freelancing, "more like agony and anxiety and uncertainty come to mind, along with a little bit of heaven when payment is received. In fact, the two other titles I can think of that have Joy in them, Joy of Cooking and Joy of Sex, both produce warmer feelings of satisfaction, excitement and fulfillment than does Joy of Freelancing."

In spite of lighting difficulties, he did manage to convey some of what he had learned in his tenure as a freelancer: enjoy working in solitude, develop a specialty, labor to market yourself (e.g., find strangers who will pay you to write for them), cultivate good sources (everyone needs a "deep throat"), come up with leads and story ideas (attend meetings, read newsletters, follow the news), research (Thank God for the Internet), write and deliver the piece, and finally strive to get paid ("The wolf's at the door" sounds desperate enough to convince even the most hardened editor to forward your invoice to accounting).

Not wanting to leave attendees with a negative impression of freelancing, Mr. Mullins said there are many positives: You can go to work in your underwear or nothing at all if you are so daring. You can come to work when you want or stay late. You are your own boss, so to speak. "Overall, freelancing, when the market is free flowing, is a very satisfactory method of earning a living. But you do have to work at it. It's your party or your funeral."

Read the entire review at:-

http://www.insfolks.com/article.php?cmd=1&id=12

5. Watching the Bottom Line

Insurance and Shipping Accountants Moore Stephens have been pondering the boom times of present day shipping markets with characterstic caution. The May edition of their newsletter, The Bottom Line offers guidance to owners on how to manage their finances in a time of strong rates. It focuses on checking the creditworthiness of charterers, timing and justification of investment decisions and ends by advising owners to watch their cost base.

Also in The Bottom Line, the impact of the US freight tax is explained. Regulations under s883 enforce the US Freight tax for fiscal years commencing after September 25, 2003. Everyone with owned or chartered ships calling at US ports should be aware of this tax.

Find out more from:-

richard.greiner@moorestephens.com

6. And Finally...

Thanks to Capt Lueddeke for this one:-

At a posh dinner party a diplomat from the Far East was struggling with his English as he told his guests about himself and his home country.

He concluded,"And I have a charming wife, but, alas, no children".

As his listeners waited for him to continue, he said, haltingly, "You see, my wife is unbearable".

Puzzled glances prompted him to try and clarify. "What I mean is, my wife is inconceivable".

Faced with more blank looks he said triumphantly,"That is my wife is impregnable!".

PS From Fraser Hunt:-

Grandpa was at the Mall with his 5 year old grandson last week and they got separated.

The grandson approached a uniformed policeman and said, "I've lost my grandpa!"

The cop asked, "What's he like?"

The little boy replied, "Beer and women with big boobs".

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